Microburbs Insights

From 1 July 2027 new investors lose negative gearing on established homes. We scored 8.94 million Australian dwellings for how much of the local stock is already owned by negatively-geared private landlords — a ten-fold spread across suburbs, now visible in every Microburbs report.

Suburbs where long-term migrants have settled and integrated outperform the national market by 1.7% over 4 years. 272,958 sales tested across a decade; signal held in 21 of 24 periods.

A national rental valuation system covering 462,693 properties across all states. Nearly three quarters of estimates land within 10% of the advertised rent; 84.2% for properties with prior rental history.

Microburbs reads a build year for every Australian property, with an 80% probability range and a calibrated per-home confidence score. 16.0M properties scored; mean confidence 82.9%.

Australia's highest-rent suburbs collect $580/wk in the top affluence quartile vs $410 in the bottom — a 41% rent premium for the same dwelling. Validated against 4,127 suburbs.

Walkability, transit, supermarkets, medical. Convenience correlates +0.39 with house prices and -0.34 with gross yields — the second-largest negative yield correlation of any dimension.

Family-oriented suburbs deliver a 28% rent premium ($550/wk vs $430) and the most stable tenant bases in Australia — school-age families sign multi-year leases. Validated against 4,127 suburbs.

Hip inner-city suburbs trade at only a 1.10× premium — the smallest of any livability dimension. The cheapest entry point into Australian renter-heavy urban markets.

Beach, water, parks, cafes, views, green cover. Each 1-point lift on the lifestyle score adds about $250,000 to the median suburb house price. Largest negative correlation with yield of any dimension.

Safety correlates +0.30 with house prices and +0.11 with 5-year capital growth — one of only two livability dimensions with a positive growth signal. Validated against 4,127 suburbs.

Tranquil suburbs are slightly cheaper, slightly higher-yielding, and have the largest positive correlation with 5-year growth (+0.11) of any livability dimension.

The 2021 census is five years old. The 2026 census lands in 2027. This dataset fills the gap with a 2026 outright-ownership estimate for every residential SA1, inherited to ~243,000 Microburbs.

Mining-token-heavy Australian suburbs trailed the national median by 2.5 to 4pp/year over 12-20 year horizons. Professional-services-heavy suburbs lagged by 4.3pp/year over 5 years. 31 mining suburbs, 148 professional-services suburbs.

Purchase affordability predicts excess returns across 4.6 million transactions (2003-2026). The cheapest decile beat its timing cohort by 12pp/year; the most expensive trailed by 4.5pp.

Zoning mix within a few kilometres of a house explains 28% of capital growth variation, 45% of price, 33% of rent and 42% of yield across 2,856 NSW and Victorian suburbs.

Microburbs now shows the land-building split for 7.5 million properties across every state and territory — the first time property-level land value data has been freely available outside NSW and ACT.

Heritage-protected houses outgrew non-heritage by 20–33% through 2021, then reversed. By 2025, heritage is growing 41% slower. Based on 10 million completed property holds across NSW, VIC and QLD.

Owner-occupier microburbs are forecast to outperform renter-tilted microburbs by +2.31%/yr on capital growth. 10,358 suburbs and 246,019 microburbs, calibrated to 2026. Every Australian region positive.

We matched 2,000 pairs of properties on the same street — one flat, one steep. Across 28 million sales over 22 years, slope amplifies cyclical volatility but does not change the long-term destination.

First-preference voting estimate for every mesh block in Australia, anchored to the 2025 federal booth count and forward-projected to April 2026 polling. Includes the SA House of Assembly result of 21 March 2026, where One Nation won four lower house seats outside Queensland for the first time.

Across 7.7M transactions and 28 airports, ANEF noise zones carry a ~8% price discount and 0.5-0.7%/yr slower growth — but rents hold firm, opening a yield gap in cities like Tullamarine and Forrestfield.

2.8M resales across 87 markets. In 11 high-risk inner-city markets, the densest microburbs trail less-dense neighbours by 1-2pp/yr. In 54 regional markets, density predicts the opposite.

390,339 repeat-sale pairs across 408 councils. Subdivision DAs consistently predict +0.4 to +1.4pp/yr faster growth. Multi-residential DAs are actively negative. The housing-DA signal flipped when rates rose.

Ten hazard layers across every Australian address. Contamination within 250m and surface acid sulfate soils carry $143K-$164K capital growth gaps over an 8-year hold on a $500K home, after same-postcode matching.

8,806 real landlord insurance quotes from two insurers, every state and territory. Our model estimates premiums within $103 of actual on a typical $595 value-tier policy — close enough for net-yield calcs.

A national, microburb-level reading of mortgage stress. The national median microburb sits at 29% of mortgage holders over the 30% repayments-to-income line; the worst pockets exceed 90%.

12.5M repeat sales. The static loss rate barely predicts future growth. But suburbs where the loss rate is falling beat those where it is rising by ~2.6pp/yr (2022-2026).

Strata levy data extracted from 6.8M listing descriptions across 49,234 apartments in 19,270 buildings. Typical quarterly levy is $774 — roughly 16% of gross rental income.

The 2026 budget's capital gains tax changes don't hit every suburb the same. We scored 2,118 Australian suburbs on five signals to identify where prices are most exposed to falls before the 30 June 2027 deadline.

87% of valuations within 10% of sale price. Tested on 182,517 sales with geographic holdout validation.

77% of agents underquote. National study of 427,000 transactions and 31,208 agents. Median underquote -3.5%.

Street-level crime analysis across 5 cities. Within-suburb crime variation up to 1,538x. Safety premium disappears after controlling for lifestyle.

Property-level analysis of 100,000 repeat sales against 138,000 mapped public housing properties. 4.2% growth cost at 10m.

Bottom 5% of suburbs by underclass concentration underperformed price-band peers by 57pp over 10 years. 94% actually underperformed.

415 matched suburb pairs. Construction shocks caused 4.3% less growth over 3 years. Apartment supply drags; house supply helps.

5,022 suburbs over 20 years. 1.4pp raw safety premium disappears entirely after controlling for supply and lifestyle.

353,295 streets, 17.4M sales. Top 10% streets outperform bottom 10% by 3.0pp/yr — a $265,000 equity gap over 4 years.

How Microburbs measures suburb growth differently from CoreLogic, Domain, and REA — and why it matters for investors.

29% of for-sale listings hide the asking price. National study of 93,510 properties across all states.

Nine growth signals tested across 25 years of Australian sales data — rental growth, home office, tranquility, premium renovation, mean reversion, market distress, tightly held, innovation economy, and community depth.

WFH suitability as a growth signal for suburb prices.

Deep community engagement correlates with price stability.

Seven GPT versions tested across 17,096 suburb predictions. Six of seven underperformed a simple baseline.

Suburbs with rising rents outperform by 4.9% per year.

Suburbs below their long-run trend revert upward — 3.0% annual outperformance.

Low vendor turnover predicts higher growth.

Where innovation workers live, prices rise.

Identifying distressed markets before prices fall further.

Transport infrastructure as a growth predictor.

Thirteen factors combined into a single outperformance score for every suburb in Australia. Backtested to 1990 with a 65.4% hit rate.

Current listings priced below their AVM valuation — distressed sales, motivated sellers, and pricing errors.

The top 10% of property investors earn 13.6% per year.

How reliable are property expert predictions?

How coherent are local property markets? Not all suburbs behave as one market.

A current-day comparable-sales estimate for every home in Australia — matched on dozens of features, not just beds and baths, and growth-adjusted to today.

427,000+ transactions analysed — 77% of agents underquote.

What changed in Melonba, Sydney's north west, since the 2021 Census: 440 homes then, 4,007 addresses now, and the 2026 Census boundaries redrawn around the growth.

What changed in Donnybrook, Melbourne's north, since the 2021 Census: 722 homes then, 6,992 addresses now, and the 2026 Census boundaries redrawn around the growth.

What changed in Tarneit, Melbourne's west, since the 2021 Census: 17,167 homes then, 30,041 addresses now, and the 2026 Census boundaries redrawn around the growth.

What changed in Clyde North, Melbourne's south east, since the 2021 Census: 9,904 homes then, 18,455 addresses now, and the 2026 Census boundaries redrawn around the growth.

Where Australia actually built houses since the 2021 Census, measured from every address in the country: the fifteen suburbs that moved furthest, what got built, and how to read the 2026 results when they land.

The 2026 Census uses new boundaries. 6,317 of 61,846 SA1 codes from 2021 do not exist in 2026. What happened to them, what it does to a join, and how to carry a 2021 analysis to 2026 with the ABS's own weights.

Where the 2026 Australian Census is up to, every release date, every new and changed question, and what your suburb looks like today while the results are still nine months away.

From 1 July 2027 new investors lose negative gearing on established homes. We scored 8.94 million Australian dwellings for how much of the local stock is already owned by negatively-geared private landlords — a ten-fold spread across suburbs, now visible in every Microburbs report.

A suburb's median can rise because the same homes get dearer, or because neighbours knock theirs down and build mansions. Only one puts money in your pocket. We measured the gap between reported medians and constant-quality repeat sales across 13.3 million sales.

Suburbs where long-term migrants have settled and integrated outperform the national market by 1.7% over 4 years. 272,958 sales tested across a decade; signal held in 21 of 24 periods.

Across 7.7M transactions and 28 airports, ANEF noise zones carry a ~8% price discount and 0.5-0.7%/yr slower growth — but rents hold firm, opening a yield gap in cities like Tullamarine and Forrestfield.

Australia's highest-rent suburbs collect $580/wk in the top affluence quartile vs $410 in the bottom — a 41% rent premium for the same dwelling. Validated against 4,127 suburbs.

Family-oriented suburbs deliver a 28% rent premium ($550/wk vs $430) and the most stable tenant bases in Australia — school-age families sign multi-year leases. Validated against 4,127 suburbs.

Hip inner-city suburbs trade at only a 1.10× premium — the smallest of any livability dimension. The cheapest entry point into Australian renter-heavy urban markets.

Purchase affordability predicts excess returns across 4.6 million transactions (2003-2026). The cheapest decile beat its timing cohort by 12pp/year; the most expensive trailed by 4.5pp.

Microburbs now shows the land-building split for 7.5 million properties across every state and territory — the first time property-level land value data has been freely available outside NSW and ACT.

Owner-occupier microburbs are forecast to outperform renter-tilted microburbs by +2.31%/yr on capital growth. 10,358 suburbs and 246,019 microburbs, calibrated to 2026. Every Australian region positive.

Microburbs sign-up data shows 64% of self-identified property investors have a non-Anglo surname. Singh, not Smith, is the most common surname. The Labor case for tightening negative gearing assumes investors and the migrant vote are separable blocs — our data says otherwise.

The 2026 budget's capital gains tax changes don't hit every suburb the same. We scored 2,118 Australian suburbs on five signals to identify where prices are most exposed to falls before the 30 June 2027 deadline.

New housing supply within 1km is associated with -4.3% slower annual growth in surrounding properties. 9,744 suburbs analysed.

Why our methodology produces more trustworthy property data — AVM accuracy, data sourcing, forecast validation, and how we compare to competitors.

87% of valuations within 10% of sale price. Tested on 182,517 sales with geographic holdout validation.

Around 30% of active listings hide the asking price. Microburbs recovers the agent-submitted price on 85% of those using backend data agents are legally required to lodge.

Two streets in Chatswood share a postcode. One has 88 incidents per 100,000. The other: 25,245. Suburb crime averages are useless — we mapped 368,000 microburbs to show the real picture.

A public housing neighbour is associated with 4.2% slower annual growth. On an $800,000 home, that is $33,600 a year. Based on 100,000 repeat sales across five states.

Not poverty. Not working class. Specifically the underclass. 500 suburbs with concentrated welfare dependence underperformed price-band peers by 63 percentage points over 10 years.

77% of agents underquote. National study of 427,000 transactions and 31,208 agents. Sydney Inner West is worst at -7.9%. Trend is worsening across all major states.

Safe suburbs outgrew high-crime suburbs by 1.4pp/year across 5,022 suburbs. But this gap disappears when controlling for amenity and transport access.

353,295 streets across 14,069 suburbs. Top 10% of picks outperformed the market by 3.0pp/year, adding $141,000 on a $1M property over 4 years.

Nine growth signals tested across 25 years of Australian sales data — rental growth, home office, tranquility, premium renovation, mean reversion, market distress, tightly held, innovation economy, and community depth.

Suburbs with rising rents outperform by 4.9% per year.

Suburbs below their long-run trend revert upward — 3.0% annual outperformance.

Low vendor turnover predicts higher growth.

Where innovation workers live, prices rise.

Identifying distressed markets before prices fall further.

WFH suitability as a growth signal for suburb prices.

Quiet, cool suburbs command a premium.

Deep community engagement correlates with price stability.

Seven GPT versions tested across 17,096 suburb predictions. Six of seven underperformed a simple baseline.

Seven GPT versions tested across 17,096 suburb predictions. Six of seven underperformed a simple baseline.

Suburbs with rising rents outperform by 4.9% per year.

Suburbs below their long-run trend revert upward — 3.0% annual outperformance.

Low vendor turnover predicts higher growth.

Where innovation workers live, prices rise.

Identifying distressed markets before prices fall further.

WFH suitability as a growth signal for suburb prices.

How urban density and heat islands affect property values.

Thirteen factors combined into a single outperformance score for every suburb in Australia. Backtested to 1990 with a 65.4% hit rate.

Current listings priced below their AVM valuation — distressed sales, motivated sellers, and pricing errors.

The top 10% of property investors earn 13.6% per year.

Expert predictions vs actual outcomes during downturns.

How coherent are local property markets? Not all suburbs behave as one market.

How coherent are local property markets? Not all suburbs behave as one market.

427,000+ transactions analysed — 77% of agents underquote.

Your street is not your suburb — why block-level scores change everything.

How coherent are local property markets? Not all suburbs behave as one market.