Estimating 2026 Outright-Ownership Share at SA1 and Microburb Level
The 2021 census is five years old. The 2026 census lands in 2027. This dataset fills the gap: a 2026 outright-ownership estimate for every one of Australia’s 54,744 residential SA1s, inherited to the ~243,000 residential Microburbs inside them.
The gap this fills
Every Australian Microburb now has a 2026 outright-ownership number
The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the share of owner-occupied dwellings owned outright once every five years, at the Statistical Area 1 (SA1) level. An SA1 is the ABS geography of roughly 200 to 400 people, usually four to five city blocks. The most recent release covers 2021. The 2026 census values will not be available until mid-2027.
This dataset closes the four to six year gap. Every residential SA1 in Australia carries a 2026 estimate. Every Microburb (the ABS mesh block, typically 30 to 60 dwellings on one or two streets) inherits the estimate of the SA1 that contains it. The result is a contemporary view of outright ownership at the smallest unit the ABS publishes.
Why this dataset exists
Outright ownership predicts tightness, turnover and rate sensitivity
The share of homes owned outright is a structural indicator of a neighbourhood. When the share is rising, fewer homes are mortgaged and fewer owners are exposed to interest rate movements. A suburb where outright ownership has risen five percent in five years typically turns over less stock than a suburb where the share has stayed flat.
Because the ABS only reports the rate every five years, the most recent public number is always between one and six years old. Investors, buyers agents and councils need a current view at a finer grain than the whole suburb. This release provides that view, street by street.
What the output looks like
SA1 map for a representative Brisbane suburb
The map below shows the estimated change in outright-ownership share between 2021 and 2026 for every Microburb inside and around Toowong, Brisbane. Toowong’s 2021 outright-ownership share was 20.1%, around 5% below the dwelling-weighted Brisbane average of 25.7%. The suburb spans a typical mix of unit, townhouse and detached dwellings. Colour intensity reflects the 2026 level. Hovering any block reveals the street names, the 2021 baseline and the estimated 2026 value.
How to read it. Darker blue fills show SA1s with a higher 2026 outright-ownership share. Lighter fills show SA1s with a lower share. Grey blocks cover non-residential mesh blocks and industrial land.
What the dataset shows nationally
Most suburbs tightened. A few gave ground.
The average Australian SA1 is estimated to have gained roughly +1.2% outright ownership between 2021 and 2026. That national pull is small, but the spread between areas is not.
Around one SA1 in ten gained more than +4.3% over the five years. Another one in ten gave back more than -2.1%. In any metro, both types sit within a few kilometres of each other. Suburb averages conceal that. The Microburb grain exposes it.
Where to use the dataset
Integration into suburb and property reports
The 2026 estimate underpins a new “Ownership Outlook” section in the Microburbs suburb and property report. Eight suburb excerpts and four property excerpts are available as previews at the excerpt viewer. Each excerpt links through to its Microburb map.
Example suburbs
| Suburb | City | 2021 share | 2026 estimate | Change | Microburb map |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hope Island | Gold Coast | 35.5% | 40.8% | +5.3% | View → |
| Mosman | Sydney | 36.1% | 37.6% | +1.5% | View → |
| Fremantle | Perth | 25.1% | 26.7% | +1.6% | View → |
| Unley | Adelaide | 33.3% | 34.4% | +1.1% | View → |
| Footscray | Melbourne | 14.3% | 15.3% | +1.0% | View → |
| Toowong | Brisbane | 20.6% | 21.5% | +0.9% | View → |
| Castlecrag | Sydney | 45.8% | 46.4% | +0.6% | View → |
| Moonee Ponds | Melbourne | 31.1% | 31.3% | +0.2% | View → |
How to read it
What this estimate is and is not
The dataset is a 2026 estimate, not a 2026 census reading. It will be superseded and validated by the ABS when the 2026 census is released in mid-2027. Individual SA1 estimates can miss, particularly in very small SA1s or in areas undergoing unusually rapid demographic change. Each Microburb carries the estimate of the SA1 that contains it, so values do not vary between Microburbs inside the same SA1.
Use it for direction, not for the decimal. The change column is the signal. An SA1 moving from 30% to 38% tells a different story from one moving 30% to 31%. The magnitude of the shift is what warrants attention.