Home Office Index: +4.0% Extra Growth Per Year
Suburbs above the Home Office threshold grow 4.0% per year faster than the market. That is extra growth, on top of whatever the market does. We tested 272,958 sales across more than a decade.
This is one of 5 synthetic threshold indices in the Microburbs research programme.
What Is the Transport Ecosystem Index?
Some suburbs are spacious. Homes sit on generous blocks. Residents drive to work. Public transport is limited. These are not disadvantages for property growth. Suburbs with this profile consistently outperform the market.
Other suburbs sit on major transit corridors. Tram stops, bus interchanges, and train stations within walking distance. You would expect great transport access to push prices up. But the data shows the opposite. These well-serviced inner suburbs tend to underperform over 4-year windows.
The model combines multiple census and other government data sources related to how residents travel. The index captures a complex picture of transport patterns, not just one mode. The predictive power comes from the interaction between multiple travel behaviour variables, not from any single measure.
Core finding
Spacious, car-friendly suburbs scoring in the top tier outperform the broader market by +4.0% over 4 years, based on 38,548 property sales. This pattern held at 147 of 163 sample dates from 2008 to 2021.
Three Performance Zones
The model splits suburbs into three tiers based on their Transport Index score. Spacious, car-dependent suburbs sit in the top tier. Dense, transit-rich suburbs sit in the bottom.
Extra growth per year over 4 years. 38,548 sales tested.
Slight extra growth. 146,319 sales tested. Near the market average.
Underperformance over 4 years. 88,091 sales tested.
Performance Over Time
The chart tracks the 4-year annualised growth rate for spacious outer suburbs (above-threshold) versus transit-heavy inner suburbs (below-threshold).
Reading the chart
The spread between the two groups tells the story. From 2008 to 2011, both groups sat near zero with a narrow spread. From 2012, the gap widened sharply. The spread peaked at over 4 percentage points during 2013 to 2015. Even in weaker markets where both groups declined, the top tier consistently shrank less. The top tier beat the bottom in 122 of 163 quarters (75%).
Geographic Breakdown
The signal works across most Australian regions. Positive spread means spacious outer suburbs outperformed.
Regional variation
Spacious suburbs outperformed in 8 of 13 regions. The strongest separation appears in Greater Darwin (+3.23% spread) and Greater Melbourne (+3.02% spread). The signal inverts in some regions, most notably Rest of NT (-4.24% spread), where small sample sizes and unique market conditions play a role.
Full Regional Table
All growth rates are annualised over 4 years.
| Region | Spread | Sales Tested |
|---|---|---|
| Greater Darwin | +3.23% | 367 |
| Greater Melbourne | +3.02% | 4,945 |
| Rest of WA | +2.37% | 3,603 |
| Rest of Qld | +2.06% | 13,184 |
| Rest of NSW | +1.42% | 14,351 |
| Greater Sydney | +0.31% | 4,576 |
| Greater Adelaide | +0.23% | 3,216 |
| Rest of Vic. | +0.11% | 7,443 |
| ACT | -0.55% | 1,129 |
| Greater Brisbane | -0.64% | 1,854 |
| Greater Perth | -0.94% | 2,684 |
| Rest of SA | -0.94% | 2,342 |
| Rest of NT | -4.24% | 147 |
Is This Pattern Real?
It is counter-intuitive. Good public transport should push prices up. But the data says otherwise. Spacious, car-friendly suburbs outperform by +4.0% across 38,548 sales.
This is a real pattern, not a crystal ball. Interest rates, local infrastructure, and supply constraints all matter too. But across a decade of data, the pattern holds. Spacious outer suburbs with fewer transport options grow faster than dense inner suburbs with plenty of trains and buses.
The pattern held at the majority of 163 different time periods. It held in 8 of 13 geographic regions. Spacious suburbs beat transit-heavy suburbs in 75% of quarters.
The pattern does invert in some regions. Greater Perth, Greater Brisbane, and the ACT show the opposite result. This is a pattern with clear geographic limits. We are transparent about where it works and where it does not.
How we tested this
Growth rates are measured over rolling 4-year windows. All comparisons measure outperformance relative to the national median, so the results are not just reflecting broad market trends. For the full statistical method, see the Technical Whitepaper.
Want the Full Statistical Detail?
The Technical Whitepaper covers p-values, R-squared, t-test method, and the full date-by-date and region-by-region breakdown.
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