Home Office Index: +4.0% Extra Growth Per Year

What Is the Transport Ecosystem Index?

Some suburbs are spacious. Homes sit on generous blocks. Residents drive to work. Public transport is limited. These are not disadvantages for property growth. Suburbs with this profile consistently outperform the market.

Other suburbs sit on major transit corridors. Tram stops, bus interchanges, and train stations within walking distance. You would expect great transport access to push prices up. But the data shows the opposite. These well-serviced inner suburbs tend to underperform over 4-year windows.

The model combines multiple census and other government data sources related to how residents travel. The index captures a complex picture of transport patterns, not just one mode. The predictive power comes from the interaction between multiple travel behaviour variables, not from any single measure.

Three Performance Zones

The model splits suburbs into three tiers based on their Transport Index score. Spacious, car-dependent suburbs sit in the top tier. Dense, transit-rich suburbs sit in the bottom. Each tier shows a distinct growth pattern.

Performance Over Time

The chart below tracks the 4-year annualised growth rate for spacious outer suburbs (above-threshold) versus transit-heavy inner suburbs (below-threshold). The key number is the spread between the two lines. A wider spread means the top tier is pulling further ahead.

Consistency Across 163 Sample Dates

We tested the signal at 163 different points in time between 2008 and 2021. The top tier outperformed the bottom tier at the majority of those dates. Spacious suburbs beat transit-heavy suburbs in 75% of quarters.

Geographic Breakdown

The signal works across most Australian regions. The chart below shows the spread (spacious suburbs minus transit-heavy suburbs) for each GCCSA region. Positive spread means spacious outer suburbs outperformed.

Full Regional Table

All growth rates are annualised over 4 years.

Real-World Example: Berwick vs Braybrook

Both are established Melbourne suburbs in the $400,000 to $600,000 price range. Berwick has strong transport links, walkable streets, and good access to services. Braybrook has fewer transport options and lower walkability scores.

Is This Pattern Real?

It is counter-intuitive. Good public transport should push prices up. But the data says otherwise. Spacious, car-friendly suburbs outperform by +4.0% across 38,548 sales.

This is a real pattern, not a crystal ball. Interest rates, local infrastructure, and supply constraints all matter too. But across a decade of data, the pattern holds. Spacious outer suburbs with fewer transport options grow faster than dense inner suburbs with plenty of trains and buses.

The pattern held at the majority of 163 different time periods. It held in 8 of 13 geographic regions. Spacious suburbs beat transit-heavy suburbs in 75% of quarters.

The pattern does invert in some regions. Perth, Brisbane, and the ACT show the opposite result. This is a pattern with clear geographic limits. We are transparent about where it works and where it does not.