Community Depth: +1.7% Extra Growth Per Year
Suburbs above the Community Depth threshold grow 1.7% per year faster than the market. That is extra growth, on top of whatever the market does. We tested 104,593 sales across a decade.
This is one of 9 threshold indices in the Microburbs research programme.
What Is the Community Depth Index?
Some suburbs have deep, layered communities. Multiple generations of settlement. Established local businesses. Complex social networks that took decades to form. These are places where families stay and build long-term connections. Property in these suburbs tends to grow faster than the broader market.
Other suburbs are still forming their identity. Residents are newer. Social networks are shallower. Community institutions are younger. This is not about any single demographic measure. It is about a constellation of factors that together capture how established a community really is.
The model combines multiple variables drawn from census and other government data sources. Each captures a different dimension of community depth. No single variable carries the signal on its own. The predictive power comes from the interaction between factors.
Three Performance Zones
The model splits suburbs into three tiers based on their Community Depth score. Each tier shows a distinct growth pattern.
3.9% spread between top and bottom tiers
Top tier suburbs grow 1.7% faster than the market. Bottom tier suburbs trail by 2.2%. The total gap is 3.9 percentage points per year.
Performance Over Time
The chart below tracks the 4-year annualised growth rate for above-threshold suburbs and below-threshold suburbs. The blue line sits above the red line in the vast majority of quarters.
Consistency Across 24 Sample Dates
We tested the signal at 24 different points in time between 2011 and 2021. The top tier outperformed at 21 of those 24 dates.
| Sample Window | Extra Growth (4yr) |
|---|---|
| 2011 | |
| Dec 2011 → Dec 2015 | +2.2% |
| 2012 | |
| Apr 2012 → Apr 2016 | +2.8% |
| Oct 2012 → Oct 2016 | +3.2% |
| Nov 2012 → Nov 2016 | +3.3% |
| 2013 | |
| June 2013 → June 2017 | +3.9% |
| 2014 | |
| Feb 2014 → Feb 2018 | +3.7% |
| July 2014 → July 2018 | +3.4% |
| 2015 | |
| Apr 2015 → Apr 2019 | +2.4% |
| June 2015 → June 2019 | +2.1% |
| Sept 2015 → Sept 2019 | +1.7% |
| 2016 | |
| May 2016 → May 2020 | +1.8% |
| Aug 2016 → Aug 2020 | +1.7% |
| 2017 | |
| Apr 2017 → Apr 2021 | +2.1% |
| Sept 2017 → Sept 2021 | +2.2% |
| 2018 | |
| Jan 2018 → Jan 2022 | +2.4% |
| 2019 | |
| Apr 2019 → Apr 2023 | +1.8% |
| May 2019 → May 2023 | +1.7% |
| June 2019 → June 2023 | +1.7% |
| Nov 2019 → Nov 2023 | +1.3% |
| Dec 2019 → Dec 2023 | +1.3% |
| 2020 | |
| Jan 2020 → Jan 2024 | +1.3% |
| 2021 | |
| Jan 2021 → Jan 2025 | +0.5% |
| Mar 2021 → Mar 2025 | +0.3% |
| Aug 2021 → Aug 2025 | +0.0% |
Geographic Breakdown
The signal works across most Australian regions. Positive spread means the signal works as expected.
Full Regional Table
All growth rates are annualised over 4 years, measured 2015 to 2021.
| City | Spread | Sales Tested |
|---|---|---|
| Regional Qld | +3.3% | 16,730 |
| Melbourne | +3.0% | 5,861 |
| Darwin | +1.9% | 390 |
| Perth | +1.7% | 3,874 |
| Regional WA | +1.6% | 6,566 |
| Sydney | +1.1% | 6,573 |
| Regional NSW | +1.1% | 11,335 |
| Regional Vic. | +0.9% | 7,189 |
| Brisbane | +0.6% | 5,544 |
| Adelaide | +0.4% | 3,505 |
| Regional SA | +0.3% | 3,763 |
| ACT | -0.2% | 1,056 |
What Community Depth Looks Like on the Ground
This signal measures how established and stable a community is. It captures volunteer rates, club memberships, local business longevity, and how long residents stay. It is not about demographics. It is about social infrastructure.
What scores above the threshold
Suburbs where families stay for decades. Active sporting clubs, volunteer fire brigades, school P&C groups, and local business networks that have operated for years.
Examples from the data include Bateau Bay and Berkeley Vale on the Central Coast, and Baxter on the Mornington Peninsula.
What scores below the threshold
Suburbs with high population turnover. Residents move in, stay a few years, and move on. Fewer established community groups. Local businesses change hands often. The social fabric is thinner.
This pattern appears in new-build estates still forming their identity, such as Bungarribee, and in high-density transit hubs where short-term residents outnumber long-term ones.
Is This Pattern Real?
We tested this rigorously. The pattern of +1.7% extra growth was confirmed by testing across 104,593 sales over a full decade.
This is a real signal, not a crystal ball. Many factors drive property prices, from interest rates to local infrastructure to supply constraints. Across a decade of data, this pattern holds consistently.
The signal worked at 21 of 24 different time periods. It held in 11 of 12 geographic regions. The above-threshold suburbs beat the below-threshold suburbs in 82% of quarters. These results point to a genuine, repeatable pattern.
Want the Full Statistical Detail?
The Technical Whitepaper covers p-values, R-squared, t-test methodology, and the full date-by-date and region-by-region breakdown.
Find Deep-Community Suburbs Near You
Get Community Depth scores for every suburb in Australia. Combine with other Microburbs signals to build a shortlist that outperforms.
Part of the Threshold Signals research programme