A Public Housing Neighbour Is Associated With 4.2% Slower Annual Growth
On an $800,000 home, that is about $33,600 a year. Based on 100,000 sales across five states.
Luke Metcalfe · Microburbs Research · March 2026The problem no one talks about
You can look up crime rates, school rankings, flood zones, and train timetables for any property in Australia. But there is one factor that affects every homeowner and no government publishes it: which specific properties near you are public housing.
The Census says your neighbourhood has 20% social housing. It does not say whether that housing is next door or 800 metres away. That difference is worth tens of thousands of dollars a year in capital growth.
What we found
We tracked 100,000 properties that sold at least twice across five states. For each one, we checked how many public housing properties are within 10 metres, 50 metres, 100 metres, and further out. The pattern is consistent at every distance.
| How close is the public housing? | Growth with none | Growth with 1 nearby | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10m (next door) | +7.8%/yr | +3.6%/yr | -4.2% |
| 50m (end of the block) | +7.8%/yr | +4.4%/yr | -3.4% |
| 100m (same street) | +7.9%/yr | +4.1%/yr | -3.8% |
| 200m (around the corner) | +8.1%/yr | +4.0%/yr | -4.1% |
On a $800,000 home, 4.2% per year is $33,600. Over five years, that is $168,000 in growth you did not get. Two identical-looking houses on the same street can have completely different investment outcomes depending on which side of a public housing cluster they sit on.
The first one matters most
Going from zero to one public housing property within 100 metres is linked to 3.8% slower annual growth. Going from one to fifty adds only another 2.7%. The first one has the biggest impact.
At the extreme: properties surrounded by public housing (50+ within 100 metres) grew just 1.4% per year. On an $800,000 home, that is $11,200 a year versus $63,200 for a home with none nearby.
Real suburbs, real dollars
Maroubra, Sydney
The suburb averages 15% public housing. But it is concentrated around the Coral Sea Park estate. One side of Maroubra Junction has 60% public housing. The beachside blocks have zero. The suburb median grew 19% from 2020 to 2022, but streets near the estate grew far less. Two buyers 400 metres apart had very different outcomes.
Bonnyrigg, Sydney
30% public housing. But the LAHC Newleaf estate is actively demolishing public housing and replacing it with private homes. The suburb grew 30% from 2020 to 2022, beating similar suburbs by 8%. Historically, suburbs where public housing is being removed have seen faster price growth.
Flemington, Melbourne
The Flemington towers dominate the suburb. No redevelopment plans. Prices fell 3% from 2020 to 2022 while the rest of Melbourne rose 46%. This is what concentrated, unreformed public housing looks like in dollar terms.
Woodridge, Brisbane
High public housing but extreme affordability ($218,000 median in 2020). Grew 77% in two years as buyers priced out of inner Brisbane flooded in. Public housing is linked to slower growth on average but does not prevent strong performance when affordability demand is high enough.
Maroubra: the map tells the story
Blue dots are identified public housing. Coloured circles are properties that sold twice: green grew fast, red grew slowly or declined. The public housing cluster around Coral Sea Park (bottom right) is surrounded by red dots. The green dots are further away.
Growth by public housing concentration
| PH % within 200m | Annual price growth |
|---|---|
| 0% (no public housing nearby) | +8.1%/yr |
| 0-5% | +3.6%/yr |
| 5-15% | +4.6%/yr |
| 15-30% | +5.1%/yr |
| 30%+ | +5.0%/yr |
The biggest drop is from 0% to any public housing nearby. Once there is some, the concentration level matters less than the simple fact of its presence. (The 0-5% band shows lower growth than 15-30% because it includes inner-city areas with high unit density, which grew more slowly across the board during this period.)
How this helps you
If you are buying a home: Check the public housing count around your specific address, not just the suburb average. Microburbs shows you the exact concentration. Two homes on the same street can have different futures.
If you are a buyers agent: You can now quantify a factor that was previously invisible. "This property has 3 public housing within 100 metres, which has historically been linked to roughly 4% slower annual price growth" is a concrete, data-backed statement you can make to clients.
If you are investing for growth: Look for suburbs where public housing is being actively removed through redevelopment. Bonnyrigg, Waterloo, and Telopea combine low entry prices with a tailwind from declining public housing stock.
About the research
Microburbs has built a proprietary dataset that identifies public housing at the individual property level across five Australian states. This is the first dataset of its kind in Australia. Price growth was measured using 100,000 properties that sold at least twice between 2015 and 2023.
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