Market Cohesion Analysis · 10,874 property resales
We analysed every property resale held 3 years or less across Australia. The “national market” is barely better than a coin flip. Streets remove 89% of the uncertainty.
The question
During good times they grow together. During bad times they fall together. We grouped 10,874 property resales by region, buy year and sell year — so the same market forces acted on every property in each cohort — and measured how often they actually moved the same way.
Results
Click any row to explore the detail. The further you zoom in, the more properties move together.
Full comparison
The “Uncertainty Reduced” column is the fairest measure — it adjusts for the natural effect of smaller cohorts producing higher random agreement.
| Market Level | Same-Half % | Random Baseline | Uncertainty Reduced | Deviation (pp/yr) | Avg Cohort | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 64.3% | ≈53% | 24% | 10.34 | 191 | Coin flip |
| State | 71.7% | ≈56% | 36% | 9.49 | 43 | Weak |
| SA4 (Region) | 77.7% | ≈64% | 38% | 7.98 | 7.5 | Moderate |
| Suburb | 90.3% | ≈75% | 61% | 3.48 | 2.5 | Strong |
| Street | 97.3% | ≈75% | 89% | 0.87 | 2.2 | Very strong |
Key Takeaways
The classic saying overstates the case. Suburb selection is a real, measurable edge — but it leaves nearly 40% of the uncertainty on the table.
Two properties bought and sold on the same street in the same years have a 97.3% chance of moving in the same direction. That is where the real edge lies.
Only 24% of uncertainty is removed at the national level. "The market is going up" tells you almost nothing about your individual property.
Even at the suburb level, properties deviate by 3.5 percentage points per year. Over a few years that compounds into a meaningful difference.
Street-level data
Every suburb on Microburbs breaks down to individual streets — so you can compare within a suburb, not just between them.
The suburb-level median is $1.1M with 130% growth. But look at the street-level variation — this is exactly what the research predicts.
| Street | Type | Houses | Median Price | Rent /wk | Growth | Renters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole of Suburb | — | 1,373 | $1,100,000 | $750 | 130% | 11% |
| Wommara Ave | Quiet Res. | 146 | $1,091,000 | $872 | 129% | 19% |
| Pacific Hwy | Major Road | 111 | $1,061,000 | $716 | 114% | 29% |
| Harrison St | Quiet Res. | 78 | $1,106,000 | $652 | 113% | 19% |
| John Darling Ave | Quiet Res. | 69 | $1,128,000 | $790 | 63% | 5% |
| Old Belmont Rd | Quiet Res. | 69 | $1,313,000 | $848 | 105% | 30% |
| Buttaba Ave | Quiet Res. | 64 | $1,184,000 | $701 | 91% | 21% |
| Mirambeena St | Quiet Res. | 58 | $1,014,000 | $1,213 | 79% | 30% |
Dive deeper
Full methodology, results across all geographic levels, and GCCSA breakdowns. The complete research.
Read the white paper →The findings in plain English. Perfect for sharing with fellow investors or your buyer's agent.
Read the post →Click through each geographic level and watch cohesion change in real time. See the data move.
Launch interactive →10,874 property resales tell the same story. The “national market” is noise. Streets are the real market. Microburbs provides street-level data — median prices, rents, renters, and turnover rates.
Explore Microburbs →