A Deep-Dive into Land Supply and Australian Real Estate Price Growth

Luke Metcalfe from Microburbs explores how the proportion of vacant land sales in a suburb can dramatically impact the capital growth of your property investments. In this in-depth analysis, he delves into over three decades of property data to quantify a long-held market belief: areas with a high percentage of vacant land sales often see existing properties underperform compared to the national average. Learn why suburbs with minimal land sales can outperform by an extra 1.5% per year, while those with as much as 20% vacant land sales may underperform by up to 2% annually, potentially costing you hundreds of thousands in lost growth. He also explores how these effects radiate beyond a single suburb, influencing capital growth up to 7 kilometers away, and how the impact differs when investing close to major city CBDs versus regional towns. Real-world examples from Bulgarra and Geraldton, Western Australia, illustrate the direct correlation between surges in land supply and subsequent declines in property values. This video not only explains the “why” behind these trends but also provides actionable advice on how to protect and enhance your returns. Discover how to investigate land sales, scrutinize surrounding areas, ask the right questions of agents, and understand that not all median price increases signal true growth. Armed with detailed, trustworthy data and the right tools—like suburb-level insights from platforms like Microburbs—you can sidestep hidden pitfalls, identify genuine growth opportunities, and make more informed, confident property investment decisions.