We Tested Our Property Valuations Against Domain. Here's What Happened.
7,037 Melbourne properties tested head-to-head. 50,230 real sales across every Australian state. Full results published.
By Luke Metcalfe • 27 February 2026
Every property portal shows you an "estimated value." You see it on Domain. You see it on realestate.com.au. You see it on ours. But here is a question the industry rarely answers with data: how often is that number right?
Not approximately right. Not "in the ballpark." Actually right. Within 5% of what the property sells for.
We decided to find out. We took our valuation model, MicroVal, and tested it head-to-head against Domain across 7,037 Melbourne properties where both had an estimate. Same addresses. Same sale prices from the land titles office. No cherry-picking.
The results surprised us. Not because we won. But because of where we won and where we lost.
When Were These Estimates Made?
Before looking at who won, you need to know when each estimate was generated. The timing matters.
Every MicroVal prediction was generated before the property sold. Our system never sees the sale price.
The 7,037 Melbourne properties in this comparison sold between January 2023 and February 2026. Sale prices come from the land titles office.
Domain's valuations were collected from their website on 16 January 2026. By that date, almost every property in the comparison had already sold.
Why this matters
If you check Domain's valuation for a property that sold last year, you are looking at an estimate that may have been updated after the sale was recorded. MicroVal's estimates were locked in before the property sold. Domain may or may not update their estimates after a sale. We cannot confirm either way. But the timing is important context for reading the results below.
The Scoreboard
| Metric | MicroVal | Domain |
|---|---|---|
| Within 5% of sale price | 60.1% | 49.3% |
| Within 10% of sale price | 85.2% | 85.7% |
| Median dollar error | $37,626 | $49,799 |
| Closer on individual properties | 60.6% | 39.4% |
We beat Domain on precision. Our median error is $12,173 smaller per property. We were closer to the actual sale price on 60.6% of individual properties. At the tightest accuracy band (within 5%), we lead by 10.8 percentage points.
But Domain edges us at the within-10% mark by 0.5 percentage points. And they are better on expensive properties.
Side by Side: Real Properties, Both Estimates
Each card below shows what MicroVal estimated, what Domain estimated, and what the property actually sold for. All five are Melbourne Outer East properties from the 7,037 in the comparison.
On every property above, MicroVal was closer to the sale price than Domain. That pattern holds across 60.6% of the 7,037 properties in the full comparison.
Where Domain Beats Us
We are not going to pretend we win everywhere. We do not.
Domain is more accurate above $1.2M. In the $1.5M+ bracket, Domain's within-10% rate is 93.6% compared to our 75.9%. That is a large gap.
Why? Microburbs is built for property investors. Most investors buy under $1M. Our model is trained, tuned, and validated for that price range. Domain is a broader property portal with more reason to optimise at the top end. Premium properties are also more individual. A $2M house in Warranwood might have a heated pool, a custom kitchen, and a view of the Dandenongs. Those are features our model does not yet capture.
In the $600k to $1M range, it is a different story. We win 68-74% of property-level comparisons. Our median error is 3.5-3.7%. That is the price range where most Australian investors buy. And that is where MicroVal is strongest.
In the $600k to $1M range, MicroVal beats Domain on 68-74% of individual properties. That is the price band where most Australian investors buy.
How We Test It
The testing is simple. We take properties that have actually sold. We check what MicroVal predicted before the sale. We compare the prediction to the recorded sale price from the land titles office.
No adjustments. No normalisations. No excuses. If the property sold for $900,000 and we predicted $900,006, we report a $6 error. If it sold for $1,434,896 and we predicted $1,145,533, we report a 20.2% miss.
We have done this across 50,230 real sales in every Australian state. And we have done a direct head-to-head against Domain across 7,037 Melbourne properties where we had both predictions for the same address.
For MicroVal, every prediction has a recorded date in our database. For Domain, we collected their estimates on 16 January 2026 from sold property listings on domain.com.au.
What Does This Mean If You Are Buying?
Do not trust a single number. Any valuation is an estimate. Look at the confidence range, not just the point estimate.
Compare valuations. Check MicroVal. Check Domain. Check CoreLogic if you have access. If all three agree the property is worth $950K and you are bidding $1.1M, that should give you pause.
Check the date. If a valuation was generated after the property sold, it may have been influenced by the sale result. A valuation made before the sale is a genuine prediction. Look for the date on every estimate you use.
What Comes Next
We are working on three things. First, extending MicroVal to properties that have not sold recently. Second, closing the accuracy gap on premium properties above $1.2M. Third, building a forward-looking benchmark where we make predictions before the property transacts, then check ourselves after.
We will keep publishing the results. If we get worse, you will know. If we get better, you will know that too.
The property industry does not lack confidence. It lacks accountability. We are trying to fix that.
MicroVal Is in Every Property Report
You do not need to take our word for it. Every Microburbs Property Report includes a MicroVal valuation with a confidence range. Search any Australian address. You get the estimate, the confidence band, suburb analytics, comparable sales, and growth trends. All in one report.
Get a MicroVal Valuation
Every Microburbs Property Report includes a MicroVal estimate with confidence range. Search any Australian address to see it in action.
Domain is a registered trademark of Domain Holdings Australia, a subsidiary of CoStar Group, Inc. CoreLogic is a registered trademark of CoreLogic, Inc. Microburbs is not affiliated with either company. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.