Crime and safety analysis based on 152 blocks and 8,468 residents. SEIFA score 920 (higher disadvantage)
Total crime rate 20,624 per 100,000 residents. Violent crime: 1 in 34. Property crime: 1 in 10.
Bairnsdale has severe crime variation with extreme hotspots concentrated in specific areas. The commercial zone drives much of the risk.
The highest crime streets include Service Street, Nicholson Street, Paynesville Road, Wood Street, Macleod Street, and McCulloch Street. These are commercial and transport corridors. Commercial blocks average 48,863 crimes per 100,000, the highest commercial crime rate in this batch. Property crime reaches 19,935 per 100,000 with violent crime at 7,024 and drugs at 7,189. This suggests very concentrated retail theft, burglary, and drug activity in the CBD.
The safest streets are in residential areas away from the commercial core. Combay Street, Drevermann Street, Birchwood Court, Jennings Street, Kelsey Court, and Kollmorgen Place all show dramatically lower crime. Residential areas average 6,435 crimes per 100,000, with property crime at 2,932, violent crime at 857, and drugs at 1,128. The gap is enormous: commercial blocks record 7.6 times more crime than residential zones.
The crime variation reaches 63-fold, the second highest in this analysis. This extreme spread means that street selection is absolutely critical. The difference between a commercial street and a residential street is night and day.
Bairnsdale has a population of 8,468 with a SEIFA score of 920, indicating moderate advantage. Public housing comprises 4.7 per cent, welfare dependency affects 21.1 per cent, and renters account for 19 per cent. Weekly income averages $1,100 and the Hip score is 64.0. This is a working class regional centre with reasonable conditions.
For buyers, the message is emphatic. Bairnsdale is safe in residential areas and genuinely dangerous in commercial zones. The 7.6-fold gap and 63-fold variation mean that this suburb is essentially two different places. Buyers must commit to residential streets and avoid the commercial corridors entirely. With this discipline, Bairnsdale offers good value for money.
| Category | Bairnsdale | VIC Avg |
|---|---|---|
| Violent crime | 2,973 | 1,200 |
| Property crime | 10,089 | 4,000 |
| Drug offences | 1,235 | 700 |
| Public order | 1,536 | 1,000 |
Rates per 100,000 residents. Source: BOCSAR, Victoria Police, QPS.
| Metric | Bairnsdale |
|---|---|
| Public housing | 4.7% |
| Unemployment | 0.1% |
| Welfare dependent | 21.1% |
| SEIFA disadvantage | 920 |
| Median household income | $1,100/wk |
Source: ABS Census 2021.
Some high-crime suburbs grow faster than their quiet neighbours. Others do not. The difference depends on what is driving the crime. We studied 14,000 suburbs to find out which side Bairnsdale falls on.
The full Bairnsdale report includes block-level growth forecasts, the streets where crime is costing owners money, and the streets where it is not.
Which Streets in Bairnsdale Are Affected?